### 課程概況

我們生活在一個繁雜的世界里，形形色色的人、企業和政府交織在一起，產生了各種

新奇、意想不到的現象。我們看到政治沖突、市場崩盤和不斷更迭的社會趨勢。該如何去理解呢？運用模型。證據表明，具備模型思維的人要優于沒有這種思維的人。此外，運用大量模型進行思考的人要優于只運用一種模型思考的人。為什么模型會使我們成為更好的思考者呢？模型有助于我們更好地組織信息，理清互聯網上亂成一團麻或者一鍋粥（選擇你認為合適的比喻說法）的數據。模型有助于我們提高準確預測的能力，還有助于我們做出更好的決策并采取更有效的策略，甚至可以提高我們的機構和流程設計能力。

在本課程中，我將會介紹一組入門模型：首先介紹臨界點模型。然后介紹用于解釋群眾智慧的模型、用于解釋為什么有些國家富有而有些國家貧窮的模型，以及幫助企業和政治家作出戰略決策的模型。本節課所介紹的模型是之后學習社會科學課程的基礎，無論是經濟學、政治學、商業學還是社會學。掌握了這些材料對于你學習高級課程大有裨益。此外，對你的生活也會有幫助。以下是課程安排：對于每個模型，我都會提供一個簡短、易于理解的概述性課程視頻。然后，我會進行更深入的講解。我會詳細介紹模型的技術細節。這些技術課程視頻不需要微積分知識，但會涉及一些代數??。

在所有課程視頻中，我都會提出一些問題并進行小測驗，還有一個結課考試。如果你決定深入學習，并通過所有測驗和考試，你將獲得完成證書。如果你只是決定觀看入門課程視頻來接觸一些模型知識，那也很好。這都是免費的，旨在于幫助你成為更好的思考者！

### 你將學到什么

Modeling

Economics

Decision-Making

Strategic Thinking

### 課程大綱

周1

完成時間為 3 小時

Why Model & Segregation/Peer Effects

In these lectures, I describe some of the reasons why a person would want to take a modeling course. These reasons fall into four broad categories: 1)To be an intelligent citizen of the world 2) To be a clearer thinker 3) To understand and use data 4) To better decide, strategize, and design. There are two readings for this section. These should be read either after the first video or at the completion of all of the videos.We now jump directly into some models. We contrast two types of models that explain a single phenomenon, namely that people tend to live and interact with people who look, think, and act like themselves. After an introductory lecture, we cover famous models by Schelling and Granovetter that cover these phenomena. We follows those with a fun model about standing ovations that I wrote with my friend John Miller.

12 個視頻 （總計 124 分鐘）, 6 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗

周2

完成時間為 3 小時

Aggregation & Decision Models

In this section, we explore the mysteries of aggregation, i.e. adding things up. We start by considering how numbers aggregate, focusing on the Central Limit Theorem. We then turn to adding up rules. We consider the Game of Life and one dimensional cellular automata models. Both models show how simple rules can combine to produce interesting phenomena. Last, we consider aggregating preferences. Here we see how individual preferences can be rational, but the aggregates need not be.There exist many great places on the web to read more about the Central Limit Theorem, the Binomial Distribution, Six Sigma, The Game of Life, and so on. I've included some links to get you started. The readings for cellular automata and for diverse preferences are short excerpts from my books Complex Adaptive Social Systems and The Difference Respectively.

12 個視頻 （總計 138 分鐘）, 1 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗

周3

完成時間為 3 小時

Thinking Electrons: Modeling People & Categorical and Linear Models

In this section, we study various ways that social scientists model people. We study and contrast three different models. The rational actor approach, behavioral models, and rule based models . These lectures provide context for many of the models that follow. There's no specific reading for these lectures though I mention several books on behavioral economics that you may want to consider. Also, if you find the race to the bottom game interesting just type "Rosemary Nagel Race to the Bottom" into a search engine and you'll get several good links. You can also find good introductions to "Zero Intelligence Traders" by typing that in as well.

12 個視頻 （總計 130 分鐘）, 1 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗

周4

完成時間為 3 小時

Tipping Points & Economic Growth

In this section, we cover tipping points. We focus on two models. A percolation model from physics that we apply to banks and a model of the spread of diseases. The disease model is more complicated so I break that into two parts. The first part focuses on the diffusion. The second part adds recovery. The readings for this section consist of two excerpts from the book I'm writing on models. One covers diffusion. The other covers tips. There is also a technical paper on tipping points that I've included in a link. I wrote it with PJ Lamberson and it will be published in the Quarterly Journal of Political Science. I've included this to provide you a glimpse of what technical social science papers look like. You don't need to read it in full, but I strongly recommend the introduction. It also contains a wonderful reference list.

13 個視頻 （總計 132 分鐘）, 1 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗

周5

完成時間為 2 小時

Diversity and Innovation & Markov Processes

In this section, we cover some models of problem solving to show the role that diversity plays in innovation. We see how diverse perspectives (problem representations) and heuristics enable groups of problem solvers to outperform individuals. We also introduce some new concepts like "rugged landscapes" and "local optima". In the last lecture, we'll see the awesome power of recombination and how it contributes to growth. The readings for this chapters consist on an excerpt from my book The Difference courtesy of Princeton University Press.

10 個視頻 （總計 99 分鐘）, 1 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗

周6

完成時間為 28 分鐘

Midterm Exam

1 個測驗

周7

完成時間為 2 小時

Lyapunov Functions & Coordination and Culture

Models can help us to determine the nature of outcomes produced by a system: will the system produce an equilibrium, a cycle, randomness, or complexity? In this set of lectures, we cover Lyapunov Functions. These are a technique that will enable us to identify many systems that go to equilibrium. In addition, they enable us to put bounds on how quickly the equilibrium will be attained. In this set of lectures, we learn the formal definition of Lyapunov Functions and see how to apply them in a variety of settings. We also see where they don't apply and even study a problem where no one knows whether or not the system goes to equilibrium or not.

11 個視頻 （總計 116 分鐘）, 1 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗

周8

完成時間為 3 小時

Path Dependence & Networks

In this set of lectures, we cover path dependence. We do so using some very simple urn models. The most famous of which is the Polya Process. These models are very simple but they enable us to unpack the logic of what makes a process path dependent. We also relate path dependence to increasing returns and to tipping points. The reading for this lecture is a paper that I wrote that is published in the Quarterly Journal of Political Science

10 個視頻 （總計 122 分鐘）, 1 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗

周9

完成時間為 2 小時

Randomness and Random Walks & Colonel Blotto

In this section, we first discuss randomness and its various sources. We then discuss how performance can depend on skill and luck, where luck is modeled as randomness. We then learn a basic random walk model, which we apply to the Efficient Market Hypothesis, the ideas that market prices contain all relevant information so that what's left is randomness. We conclude by discussing finite memory random walk model that can be used to model competition. The reading for this section is a paper on distinguishing skill from luck by Michael Mauboussin.

11 個視頻 （總計 79 分鐘）, 1 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗

周10

完成時間為 2 小時

Prisoners' Dilemma and Collective Action & Mechanism Design

In this section, we cover the Prisoners' Dilemma, Collective Action Problems and Common Pool Resource Problems. We begin by discussion the Prisoners' Dilemma and showing how individual incentives can produce undesirable social outcomes. We then cover seven ways to produce cooperation. Five of these will be covered in the paper by Nowak and Sigmund listed below. We conclude by talking about collective action and common pool resource problems and how they require deep careful thinking to solve. There's a wonderful piece to read on this by the Nobel Prize winner Elinor Ostrom.

9 個視頻 （總計 92 分鐘）, 1 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗

周11

完成時間為 1 小時

Learning Models: Replicator Dynamics & Prediction and the Many Model Thinker

In this section, we cover replicator dynamics and Fisher's fundamental theorem. Replicator dynamics have been used to explain learning as well as evolution. Fisher's theorem demonstrates how the rate of adaptation increases with the amount of variation. We conclude by describing how to make sense of both Fisher's theorem and our results on six sigma and variation reduction. The readings for this section are very short. The second reading on Fisher's theorem is rather technical. Both are excerpts from Diversity and Complexity.

8 個視頻 （總計 62 分鐘）, 1 個閱讀材料, 1 個測驗

周12

完成時間為 1 小時

Final Exam

The description goes here

### 預備知識

學生應該可以熟練使用基本代數。不需要微積分，但是對用導數求出某點斜率的概念性理解會對課程學習非常有幫助。

### 參考資料

《差異：多元化的力量如何建立更好的團體、企業、學校和社會（新版）》，斯科特·E·佩吉著。